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Friday, 24 June 2016

BREXIT NEWS: How will Britain's vote to leave the EU effect me?


On the 24th June around 4:45am, the results for the referendum that will go down in history were announced on BBC with the British majority voting for Brexit; Britain's Exit from the EU.

Shortly after the result David Cameron announced in a statement outside Downing Street that he is resigning as Prime Minister saying "...I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to it's next destination".

The Shocking Results: 
BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EU
(LOST) Remain in the EU: 48.1% (16,141,241 votes)
(WON) Leave the EU: 51.9% (17,410,742 votes)

So who voted for remain and who voted to leave?

Reports show that London, Glasgow and Liverpool voted remain quite strongly while Coventry, Nottingham and Sheffield were all strongly crusading for a Brexit.

So how will this effect us? 

Well, judging by how shocked the world is that the Brits voted to leave the EU, it is a vote that will surely leave a connection and membership of the EU spanning nearly half a century in tatters and a very uncertain future for Britain and those who live here if the newest figures and market plummets are anything to go by. 

The Brexit will of course affect Immigration Policy, the British economy and a lot more in the pipeline, although some consequences to the leave vote will take considerably longer to show than others.

Some important changes will be revealed in coming weeks and Britain have 2 years to officially submit Article 50 of the treaty of European Union (which establishes the procedures for a member state to officially withdraw from the EU) so the vote itself alone does not mean that we have left today, that is a work in progress...

Importantly, David Cameron said this morning that he would not invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which would start the process of Brexit, and rather that he would leave that decision to his successor who likely to be Former Mayor of London Boris Johnson (God help us) or the Home Secretary Theresa May.

So let's have a look at the results being reported so far in the last few hours, before, during and after the exit:


How has the market been effected? 

Here are a few points to note:

- The Great British Pound has already dropped to a 31-year low as of this morning when it was at the lowest that it has been since 1985. A lower pound remaining would mean that imports inevitably would become more expensive for us here in Britain

- Reports suggest markets think Brexit is bad for the economy. As a result investors are most likely to want to move their money out of the UK and secure it in other markets. Evidence of such movements have already been evident in the market this morning.


How will the Property Market be effected?

Attend London’s Property Market post "Brexit" Referendum




- Uncertainty about Britain’s future relationship with the EU, who is its largest trading partner, could push the UK into a recession

- If a fall in the pound leaves any threat of prices rising up faster than 2 per cent per year the Banks will be forced to raise interest rates

The above movements began to take shape even before the results came in, as nations began to see the vote swaying towards leave. Meanwhile... while Nigel Farage shouted "Let June 23 go down in History as Independence day"..... But that's a whole other article. 



What will the effects be on immigration and migration:

- There will still probably be two years worth of Brexit negotiations going on and within this time  the free movement of EU workers will/should apply. This means that people from the EU will still be able to come into the UK, however their immigration status after Brexit has come into play would be very uncertain.

- Although many people voting to leave spoke strongly about immigration and migration being a huge problem, there are currently said to be 1.2 million Brits living in other EU countries, while about 3 million non-British EU Nationals live in Britain. Being a part of the EU allowed this move to be done with minimal effort and was actually beneficial to both sides rather than being a one sided gain. Brexit could change this ease dramatically depending on what is negotiated in coming weeks.

- France is not a signatory to the Vienna Convention and legal experts have been quoted as saying that they would not help Britons living in France in the event of Brexit. 

- Euro News Reported: "It is highly likely that EU migrants would no longer have the automatic right to come to the UK to live and work, with reciprocal restrictions quite possibly imposed on Britons heading abroad" 

- Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has put it out there that “leaving the European Union would mean that British citizens would lose their right to move freely, work and do business” within the EU.



How will sport be effected?

- In relation to sports, without the EU, players such as Dimitri Payet, N’Golo Kante and Anthony Martial would have failed to have gained a work permit, as they would have been without the freedom of movement principle which allows sportsmen and women from the EU to ply their trade in the UK without needing a work permit that the majority of non-EU citizens require. The Telegraph Sport reported "more than 100 Premier League players would have failed to have gained a work permit" if we were just using the Home Office's current criteria for non-EU players.

Nothing is yet certain and many levels of negotiation still need to be had between Britain and the EU pre Official Brexit, so there is currently no clear idea of what will happen and how we will all be impacted, but one thing is for certain, there will be serious impacts on both sides.

Former Treasury economist Jonathan Portes wrote "given we have no population register, and that EU nationals are not required to have visas, we won't actually know who is here on 23 June". So how then, I ask, can anything be guaranteed? 
UKIP's Migration spokesman Steven Woolf had said that anyone who had registered for a National Insurance number before the referendum would be guaranteed residence rights.... But is this to be the case or no? Who knows?!?! I feel a great deal of uncertainty and unrest brewing.

Is there any hope?
Possibly...but again who knows what will be negotiated. Things to note are:

- A Brexit vote is not legally binding and theoretically speaking there are a few ways that this vote can be overturned or blocked. Although this can sound like a comfort, it is not however as the BBC has said "it would be seen as political suicide to go against the will of the people as expressed in a referendum"

- A Brexit vote is not formal notification. EU member countries must meet for a summit that is schedules for 28 to 29 June. British officials could even take a few months to proceed.
- At the point that Britain evokes Article 50, it will have two years within which to negotiate a new treaty that will be a replacement of the EU membership. All issues will have to be dealt with by Britain and the EU Leaders
- Looking at the best possible results, Britain could be able to actually negotiate access to the European Market in a way that is not too far from what we had yesterday. An example to use is Norway who are not a member of the EU but have agreed to abide by certain EU rules as a way to bargain for the exchange of favourable access to the European Common Market.
The future remains to be seen.

Article by Crystal King UK 



Extracts/Sources: 

Euro News, Bloomberg
The Telegraph Business